Arcis Daily Market Watch: Friday 6 November 2026

Author: Will Simpson

Yesterday: Thursday 5 November recap

Ten internally tracked ideas produced three graded triggers: AUDJPY long hit TP1 for +47.5 pips, EURUSD long scratched for +1.2 pips, and GBPUSD long closed at session expiry for -5.8 pips. Net: +42.9 pips on the three triggered ideas. Gold short and NAS100 long were invalidated without triggers. US500 long, GER40 long, EURGBP short and USDJPY short expired untriggered. WTI short was unclear and excluded from the result.

These are tracker grades, not verified broker executions. Yesterday's public blog carried only five setups at different levels, so this is not a performance claim for that published article. Grading used Yahoo Finance proxy feeds; FX expiry marks used the last available print because of a late-session gap. AUDJPY's assumed fill was within 0.6 pip of the observed low. One day is not evidence of an edge. The lesson is to use reachable levels without removing the trigger filter.

Today's full tracked book: all 11 ideas

This is the complete 6 November tracker, not a shortlist. The London video covers three refreshed Asia-geometry setups (gold, EURUSD, USDJPY). The list below keeps the full book, including ideas reserved for the later New York session. Every entry is conditional. A zone touch alone is not a fill. If confirmation closes beyond the planned price, wait for a retest at that price or skip; never backdate a fill at a price available only before confirmation. No trade is claimed as placed.

Analysis snapshot: London refresh near session open, 6 November. Asia extrema from Arcis Charts 15m (gold H 4107 / L 4037, EURUSD H 1.1235 / L 1.1191, USDJPY H 158.01 / L 157.48). Gold, EURUSD and USDJPY below use that Asia geometry. Other ideas keep the morning tracker levels unless noted. WTI uses yfinance CL=F because it is not listed in Arcis Charts; check the broker's instrument and basis before using those levels.

Session and news risk

London opens 08:00 GMT. EU retail sales 10:00 GMT; BoE's Pill 12:15 GMT; US NFP, unemployment, hourly earnings and Canada employment 13:30 GMT; Michigan sentiment 15:00 GMT. Calendar times are from the morning research pack and should be rechecked before trading. No new entries 13:15-13:45 GMT. NAS100 and US500 are post-NFP only, not London trades. All ideas expire at 22:00 GMT today unless invalidated first. Do not carry an untriggered idea into tomorrow.

1. XAUUSD SHORT (London, video)

Tracker ID: 20261106-D01

Entry zone: scanner resistance 4072
Planning entry: 4072

Trigger: price pushes back into 4072 while Daily still prints lower highs and 4H stays capped under the Asia high, then 15m rejection or bearish engulfing / bearish momentum. No entries in the 15 minutes either side of NFP (13:30 GMT).

Stop: 4112 (above Asia high 4107)
TP1: 4037 (Asia low)
TP2: 3990 (new lows)

Invalidation: 1H close above 4112.

Why this level:
 Asia dumped gold from 4107 to 4037 (about -67 points), now near 4040. Arcis Charts S&R scanner flags 4072 overhead. Stop sits beyond the Asia extreme; TP1 is the Asia opposite extreme. A zone touch alone is not the trade.

2. EURUSD SHORT (London, video)

Tracker ID: 20261106-D02

Entry zone: broken level retest 1.12030
Planning entry: 1.12030

Trigger: push back into 1.12030 from below while Daily bias stays short and 4H keeps lower highs, then 15m rejection or bearish engulfing. No entries 15 minutes either side of NFP.

Stop: 1.1240 (above Asia high 1.1235)
TP1: 1.11500 (HTF extension)
TP2: 1.1100 (new lows)

Invalidation: 1H close above 1.1240.

Why this level:
 Asia range was roughly 1.1235 to 1.1191. Selling a reclaim failure at 1.12030 keeps the short conditional. Stop beyond Asia high; targets are the HTF extension at 1.11500 and new lows at 1.1100.

3. GBPUSD LONG (London)

Tracker ID: 20261106-D03

Entry zone: 1.3440 to 1.3455
Planning entry: 1.3448

Trigger: 15m bullish rejection holding above 1.3440 (4H gold MA shelf near 1.3451). No entries 15 minutes either side of NFP.

Stop: 1.3420
TP1: 1.3490
TP2: 1.3520

Invalidation: 1H close below 1.3420.

Why this level:
 Arcis Charts shows cable near 1.3462 after the BoE session, still above both daily MAs near 1.336-1.338 and testing the 4H gold MA. Recent highs sit near 1.3500-1.3520. A dip that holds 1.3440-1.3455 keeps the post-BoE recovery intact; a 1H close under 1.3420 says that structure is broken.

4. USDJPY LONG (London, video; Asia refresh flipped the morning short)

Tracker ID: 20261106-D04

Entry zone: 4H / scanner support 157.55
Planning entry: 157.55

Trigger: dip that holds 157.55, then 15m bullish reclaim or engulfing / higher low. No entries 15 minutes either side of NFP.

Stop: 157.35 (below Asia low 157.48)
TP1: 158.01 (Asia high)
TP2: 158.45 (new highs)

Invalidation: 1H close below 157.35.

Why this level:
 Asia printed roughly 157.48 to 158.01 with dollar yen up about 44 pips. London idea buys a hold of 157.55 after that move. Morning tracker had a short; this is the London refresh after Asia.

5. AUDUSD SHORT (London/NY)

Tracker ID: 20261106-D05

Entry zone: 0.6950 to 0.6965
Planning entry: 0.69575

Trigger: 15m rejection wick inside the zone, then a close back under 0.6948. Prefer London or post-NFP NY; no entries 15 minutes either side of NFP.

Stop: 0.6980
TP1: 0.6920
TP2: 0.6895

Invalidation: 1H close above 0.6980.

Why this level:
 Arcis Charts 4H has AUDUSD near 0.6933, well below the gold MA near 0.6988 and the slower MA near 0.7014 after the risk-off slide from about 0.702. The scanner flagged a long approach near 0.69287, so the cleaner short is a relief bounce into 0.6950-0.6965 that fails, not a naked sell at the lows.

6. AUDJPY SHORT (Tokyo/London)

Tracker ID: 20261106-D06

Entry zone: 109.80 to 110.10
Planning entry: 109.95

Trigger: 15m rejection under the daily gold MA area near 110.30, with a close back under 109.70.

Stop: 110.40
TP1: 109.20
TP2: 108.70

Invalidation: 1H close above 110.40.

Why this level:
 Arcis Charts daily has AUDJPY near 109.30 after yesterday's TP1 long, sitting on October swing support and below both daily MAs (about 110.30 and 110.73). Risk-off pressure favours selling a bounce into 109.80-110.10. If the 109.20-109.30 shelf holds with a clean 15m rejection instead, this short is skipped.

7. NAS100 SHORT (NY, post-NFP only)

Tracker ID: 20261106-D07

Entry zone: 27000 to 27200
Planning entry: 27100

Trigger: 15m rejection wick inside the zone after NFP. No entries before 13:45 GMT and none in the 15 minutes either side of the 20:30 print.

Stop: 27450
TP1: 26600
TP2: 26200

Invalidation: 1H close above 27450.

Why this level:
 Arcis Charts shows NAS100 near 26640 after a vertical selloff from the 5 Nov area near 28465, with 4H MAs far overhead near 27924 and 28719. Structure is a crash seeking a first relief rally. Selling only a post-NFP rejection into 27000-27200 keeps size honest; buying the knife without a hold trigger is not this idea.

8. US500 LONG (NY, post-NFP only)

Tracker ID: 20261106-D08

Entry zone: 7320 to 7345
Planning entry: 7332

Trigger: 15m bullish rejection holding above 7320 after NFP (scanner prior-day low area near 7332). No entries 13:15-13:45 GMT.

Stop: 7280
TP1: 7420
TP2: 7520

Invalidation: 1H close below 7280.

Why this level:
 Arcis Charts has US500 near 7350 after the crash from about 7739, with daily MAs still near 7620-7690. The Daily Support and Resistance scanner was watching a short approach at 7332 (prior-day low). A hold and 15m rejection at 7320-7345 is the bounce long; a clean 15m close under 7280 flips the idea off.

9. GER40 SHORT (London)

Tracker ID: 20261106-D09

Entry zone: 26400 to 26550

Planning entry: 26475

Trigger: 15m rejection wick inside the zone, then a close back under 26350. Prefer pre-NFP London; no entries 15 minutes either side of NFP.

Stop: 26720
TP1: 26100
TP2: 25800

Invalidation: 1H close above 26720.

Why this level:
 Arcis Charts daily has GER40 near 26190 after reversing from the early-November spike toward 26800, with daily MAs lower near 25777 and 25577. yfinance cash last print was a touch higher overnight, so confirm your broker CFD. Selling a London bounce into 26400-26550 is the conditional fade; chasing the open lower is not.

10. WTI SHORT (NY)

Tracker ID: 20261106-D10

Entry zone: 92.00 to 92.60

Planning entry: 92.30

Trigger: 1H bearish rejection inside the zone. No entries 15 minutes either side of NFP.

Stop: 93.40
TP1: 90.50
TP2: 89.00

Invalidation: 1H close above 93.40.

Why this level:
 WTI (CL=F via yfinance) is near 91.32 after bouncing from the midterm flush toward 87. Arcis Charts does not list WTI, so these levels are yfinance only and must be checked on your broker feed. Former breakdown supply at 92.00-92.60 is the retest short if it rejects; a hold above 93.40 cancels it.

11. EURGBP SHORT (London)

Tracker ID: 20261106-D11

Entry zone: 0.8355 to 0.8365

Planning entry: 0.8360

Trigger: 15m rejection above prior-day high 0.83489, with a close back under 0.8350. No entries 15 minutes either side of NFP.

Stop: 0.8380
TP1: 0.8330
TP2: 0.8310

Invalidation: 1H close above 0.8380.

Why this level:
 Arcis Charts / scanner view has EURGBP near 0.8343, pressed against swing and prior-week lows near 0.8340, with prior-day high 0.83489 and prior-week high 0.83816 overhead. A poke into 0.8355-0.8365 that fails keeps the cross heavy; if 0.8340 breaks and holds as resistance on a retest, wait for a fresh trigger rather than forcing this zone.

Execution discipline

Stops and targets above are unchanged from the tracker. Planning prices are not live orders. Confirmation and a subsequently available entry are both required; spread, slippage and fees affect realised results. Several ideas share dollar or risk-off exposure, so eleven ideas do not mean eleven independent risks. Stand aside if the market reprices through the level around payrolls. Not financial advice.

For more on rules-based trading and the daily idea book, visit arcistrade.tech.