Arcis Daily Market Watch: Thursday 5 November 2026, London Session

Asia has handed London a split market. Tech is being sold across Asia and in US futures, while money rotates into value, Hong Kong and Australia. The dollar is still soft and gold is near its highs. With the Bank of England deciding at 12:00 GMT and US payrolls tomorrow, here are the levels and trade setups we are watching for the London session, with a full breakdown of each one.

Prices are from about 05:45 GMT. Gold, oil and US index levels use futures prices.

What happened in Asia

The Nikkei started higher but turned and is now down about 2 percent. Korea's Kospi is down 5.5 percent as chip stocks get sold hard. The worry is that a Democrat-controlled Congress slows US spending on AI data centres, and that is hitting the stocks most tied to that build-out.

This is a rotation, not a rush for the exit. The Hang Seng is up 3.3 percent and the ASX 200 is up 2.6 percent. US futures show the same split. Nasdaq 100 futures are down 1.2 percent and trading below their hourly 20 and 50 averages, while Dow futures are at record highs near 53,630.

Key events today (GMT)

• 12:00 Bank of England rate decision and Monetary Policy Report. A hike to 4.00 percent from 3.75 percent is expected.
• 13:30 US initial jobless claims
• Tomorrow 13:30 US nonfarm payrolls

Dollar, euro and pound

EURUSD is at 1.1264, just under yesterday's high at 1.1275, which is also the 5-day high. It is trading above its hourly 20 average (1.1247) and 50 average (1.1230), with hourly momentum firm but not stretched (RSI about 61). Today's Asia range is 1.1238 to 1.1271.

GBPUSD is at 1.3491, just under yesterday's high at 1.3502. The BoE decides whether that level breaks today.

EURGBP is at 0.8347, in the middle of a tight 5-day range from 0.8322 to 0.8364. Yesterday's high is 0.8357.

Gold

Gold is at 4127, up 1.3 percent today after tagging 4149.5. It broke above yesterday's high at 4081 in Asia, and the move came fast, with three hourly closes from 4075 to 4127. Hourly RSI is about 81, which is overbought, and price is 65 dollars above the hourly 20 average. The trend is strong, but chasing it here gives a poor entry.

Oil

WTI is at 87.49, down from a 5-day high near 105. It is sitting on its 200-day average, with the hourly 20 average at 89.67 and the 50 average at 93.02 both falling. Hourly RSI is about 27, so it is oversold in a downtrend.

London trade ideas, full breakdown

Every idea needs its trigger candle before entry. If the trigger does not come, there is no trade.

1. EURUSD long

• Entry zone: 1.1240 to 1.1250
• Stop: 1.1220
• Targets: 1.1275, then 1.1300
• Trigger: a bullish 15m or 30m candle closing back above 1.1250 inside the zone

Why: the dollar trend is down and EURUSD is holding above both hourly averages. The zone combines the Asia low at 1.1238 with the hourly 20 average at 1.1247, where buyers stepped in overnight. The first target is yesterday's high and the 5-day high, and the second is the round number above. Risk is about 25 pips to the first target of about 30 pips. Cancel the idea if price closes an hour below 1.1220.

2. Gold long on the pullback

• Entry zone: 4095 to 4105
• Stop: 4070
• Targets: 4150, then 4180
• Trigger: a bullish 15m candle that rejects the zone

Why: gold broke out above yesterday's high at 4081 in Asia, and 4095 to 4105 is where that breakout bar started to accelerate. A retest there would reset the overbought reading while staying above the breakout. The stop sits under the base the breakout came from. The first target is this morning's high area and the second is a measured move. If gold keeps going without a pullback, we leave it.

3. EURGBP short at the range top

• Entry zone: 0.8352 to 0.8357
• Stop: 0.8370
• Targets: 0.8335, then 0.8322
• Trigger: a bearish 15m or 30m candle that rejects the zone
• No entries 15 minutes either side of 12:00 GMT

Why: 0.8357 is yesterday's high and close to the top of the 5-day range. A BoE hike would support the pound, which favours selling the top of the range. The first target is the range middle and the second is the 5-day low.

More London ideas

4. GBPUSD breakout retest after the BoE

• Entry zone: 1.3500 to 1.3505, only after the 12:00 GMT decision
• Stop: 1.3470
• Targets: 1.3540, then 1.3575
• Trigger: an hourly close above 1.3502, then a retest that holds

Why: GBPUSD has made higher highs all week and is just under yesterday's high. If the BoE hikes and sounds firm, a clean break and retest of 1.3502 opens the way to the next levels. If the BoE sounds cautious and price falls back under 1.3470, there is no trade.

5. WTI short on a bounce

• Entry zone: 88.80 to 89.20
• Stop: 89.80
• Targets: 87.00, then 86.20
• Trigger: a bearish 15m candle that rejects the zone

Why: oil is in a strong downtrend, with both hourly averages falling. It is oversold, so selling right at the 200-day average is risky. A bounce towards the hourly 20 average near 89.67 gives a better short in the direction of the trend. The targets are today's low area and a break of the 200-day average.

US session

The US session ideas, including the split between the Nasdaq and the Dow, will follow before New York opens.

How we track these ideas

Every idea is logged with its entry, stop and targets, and we post the results at the end of the day and in a weekly recap. That covers wins, losses and ideas that never trigger.

Arcis builds and runs automated trading systems that follow rules like these without emotion. You can see how the systems perform live at arcistrade.tech.

Related reading: how much to risk per trade, why most automated bots fail, and automating FX vs gold vs indices.

Market commentary for education only, not financial advice. Trading carries risk of loss.